Purchase History Is No Longer a Strategy

Two headlines from the same week say essentially the same thing from different angles: past purchases aren't enough anymore, and the consumer is increasingly unpredictable. That's not a coincidence — it's a pattern the industry is circling.

The core problem is structural. Behavioral targeting was built on the assumption that what someone bought last quarter tells you what they want this quarter. That logic held when economic conditions were stable and identity signals were consistent. Neither is true right now.

The smarter move — and the one Cannes 2026 rewarded — is building audience strategy around *context and intent*, not purchase trails. The Venezuelan election operation that won a Good Grand Prix didn't work because of data. It worked because it understood a moment. Suncorp's platform worked because it addressed a real, present anxiety — climate risk on homes — not a historic one.

For brands spending on performance marketing: this is worth stress-testing. If your audience strategy would fall apart if you removed last-touch and purchase-history data, it's already fragile. The unpredictable consumer isn't a problem to solve with better segmentation. They're an invitation to communicate something worth paying attention to in the first place.

Audience strategy and creative strategy have to be the same conversation. They've been siloed too long.